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The particulars
All 32 franchises will gather outside Union Station in Kansas City to take turns choosing which college football players will join their team. It’s all very exciting.
Way back in the day, they used to do the whole shebang in hotel conference rooms. As more and more people started to care and television cameras got involved, it moved to various locations around New York City, where it was held each year from 1965 to 2014. Nowadays, cities can bid on the rights to host the draft, not unlike the Olympics. That’s how we’ve ended up with recent drafts in Cleveland, Nashville, and Las Vegas. Next year’s is in Detroit.
The first pick belongs to the Carolina Panthers by way of a trade. The Panthers gave the Chicago Bears the ninth overall pick of the first round, as well as a second-round pick (No. 61), a 2024 first-round selection, a 2025 second-round pick and wide receiver DJ Moore. Carolina gave all that up to draft the quarterback of their future. There’s basically a 99.9% chance that will be Alabama stud Bryce Young.
How to watch
The NFL has made the first round a standalone event, which is being held on Thursday and gets going at 8 pm eastern. The second and third rounds are on Friday and the last four rounds will take place on Saturday. ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network will all be broadcasting each and every pick.
Should I try to go to this in-person at some point?
If you’re a sicko, yes. The actual event is basically graduation on steroids—you’re just sitting there waiting to hear names get called and watch people walk across a stage—except with more people in Steelers jerseys. I imagine the booze is plentiful, too. So if that’s your thing, go nuts.
The headliners
It’s a quarterback-heavy year, especially at the top. We mentioned that Young is expected to go first overall, which could kick off a string of QB’s being taken. Two of the other teams currently in possession of top-four picks (the Texans at No. 2 and the Colts at No. 4) need a new face under center as well. Enter Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, the signal callers from Florida and Ohio State, respectively. If the Arizona Cardinals—who have $160 million in guaranteed money committed to quarterback Kyler Murray—trade out of the third spot, another team could swoop in and make each of the first three picks a quarterback. That happened in 2021, and then not since 1999.
If you’re more into defense, look no further than Jalen Carter and Will Anderson, the standout defensive linemen from the SEC. Carter is a two-time national champion with the Georgia Bulldogs and considered by many to be the most talented player in the whole draft. Anderson won a natty with Alabama as a freshman, had an unreal 17.5-sack season as a sophomore, then put up 10 more as a junior before deciding that was probably enough college football for him. They will both be among the first non-quarterbacks to shake Roger Goodell’s hand on Thursday.
The wild card
A lot of things could happen to Will Levis. The Kentucky quarterback has good-not-great college stats (think Daniel Jones at Duke) but all the physical tools that make GMs salivate (think Daniel Jones last year). He definitely possesses first-round talent, but the question is whether that can translate into first-round value.
Some mock drafts have Levis going in the top three. Others have him falling out of the top ten completely, and a few see him being taken somewhere in the twenties. With quarterbacks being such a vital part of any football team’s ecosystem, swinging and missing on one with a high draft pick sometimes sets a franchise back for years. But when a team does hit on one of these so-called quarterback “projects”—i.e. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen—the sky is the limit.
No matter where he goes, expect Levis to celebrate by eating rotten bananas, peel and all, or slurping coffee with grotesque amounts of mayonnaise mixed in. Seriously.
Hipster prospect
If you’d like to hitch your wagon to a late first rounder who might bloom into a perennial Pro Bowler, consider Zay Flowers. The Boston College wideout has camera-flash speed that mostly lived in obscurity because his team won a total of 21 games in his four years on campus. But even with defenses well aware that Flowers was the most talented player on the field, he still managed to put up 1,000 yards and haul in 12 touchdowns as a senior.
The kid ran a 4.42 forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine that, at the very least, could make him an instant spark in the kick return game. He also carried the ball 57 times in college, something that the more creative coaches will take note of as they dream up jet sweeps and bubble screens for Flowers.
Most intriguing team
This might be the only situation where the Houston Texans and “intriguing” are in the same sentence.
The Texans have been a tough watch for years now. Since closing out the 2010s with back-to-back playoff appearances, they’ve won four, four, and three games in their last three seasons. Part of the reason for that misery is that they haven’t had a reliable quarterback—and now that they hold the second pick in this year’s draft, conventional wisdom would have them taking one of the blue chippers. But, as is tradition this time of year, rumors are swirling that a team near the top of the draft board might zig when everyone expects them to zag.
Indeed, insiders say the Texans are no guarantee to take Richardson or Stroud if the Panthers take Young, and aren’t even a guarantee to take a quarterback at all. Throw in the bizarre quote from embattled GM Nick Caserio that he feels “sort of like Leonardo DiCaprio in ‘Wolf of Wall Street,’ I’m not leaving,” in response to rumors that he’ll dip out after the draft—someone should probably tell him how that movie ends—and the Texans have a bit of a circus on their hands. They even sort of acknowledged this themselves by posting a wildly cryptic tweet on Monday morning.
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Team-player pairing we’re dying to see
The Bengals’ offense with Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer would be ungodly. Already armed to the teeth with offensive dynamos at every skill position, the only thing Cincinnati really needs is a tight end. Well, well, well.
Nicknamed “Baby Gronk”, the 6’4”, 250-pound pass catcher broke all of Notre Dame’s receiving records for a tight end and has the basketball background that’s been the foundation for many elite tight ends of the modern game. Graded by most draft sites as a late first-round player, Mayer lasting until the 28th pick would make the Bengals very happy.
Potential trade to keep an eye on
People really seem to think the Tennessee Titans will trade up and nab a quarterback. They’re an extremely obvious taker for the Cardinals’ third overall pick, but the problem with being an obvious trade partner is that the other side can drive up the asking price astronomically.
The Titans are no stranger to draft day trades, either. Remember, it was this time last year that they shipped A.J. Brown to the Eagles, marking by far the biggest transaction of the 2022 fiesta.
Potential controversy
When will the first running back be taken? The consensus within front offices is that running backs depreciate in value too quickly, aren’t as integral to an offense as they used to be, and can be replicated by a running back committee that doesn’t place too much emphasis or workload on one person. Because of this, a running back hasn’t been taken in the top ten since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
In 2022, a grand total of zero running backs went in the first round. In 2020, they got in just under the gun, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire going to Kansas City with the first round’s final pick. (If you’ve ever drafted Edwards-Helaire in a fantasy league, you know how that went.) In 2021, the first RB came off the board at pick 25. We know who the first running back this year will be—Bijan Robinson has that on lock—but where he ends up and how far he slides will be a huge conversation topic.
This is definitely not betting advice
Betting on the NFL Draft is a level of degeneracy that we cannot condone. But! As of this writing, Levis is currently at +700 on FanDuel to be taken first overall, and those odds could get lower on draft day. That means if you move fast, are willing to risk $100 on him going first, and it actually happens, you win $700.
The odds of him going that high have become dramatically more likely this week, at least according to sports books. That smells like the oddsmakers have received some…pertinent information. A Tuesday morning Reddit post—obviously not the most reliable source, but still—says that Levis has informed family and friends he’ll be heading to Carolina.
If that comes to fruition, we’ll have a wild move to get things going early, but it could also earn you a pretty penny.
Best media follow
Really, it’s Mina Kimes for all things football. The takes are always sharp, and at the draft you get the added bonus of real time analysis. She’s a devoted film watcher, which means most of her opinions on these college kids comes from devouring hours upon hours of their game footage, not just reciting things that any gasbag could come up with after a few googles.
Her beloved Seattle Seahawks also hold the fifth pick in the draft, meaning they could get a cornerstone dude—but also that we might get another classic reaction from Mina.
Texting with an expert
The great Charles McDonald (aka Four Verts) blessed us with some knowledge. Charles is one of the best and brightest football writers in the biz, having grown up on the internet streets of SB Nation before landing a job with the New York Daily News. He’s currently at Yahoo! Sports—where he’s done extensive draft coverage—and you know he’s trusted within football circles because Andy Reid shared his special mac n’ cheese recipe with him.
How do you see the top five picks shaking out?
I think this year has been a little tricky to peg down because there’s a wide range of opinions on quarterbacks, but we at least know who the top pick is going to be with the Panthers locking in on Bryce Young.
Here’s my stab at the top five:
- Panthers - Bryce Young
- Texans - Will Anderson
- Cardinals (or maybe someone else, potentially even the Steelers!) - Paris Johnson
- Colts - Will Levis
- Seahawks - Jalen Carter
The biggest thing here I would say: if the Cardinals do trade from number three overall, don’t assume that the team making the trade wants a quarterback. There’s a lot of buzz about Paris Johnson going much higher than people think and the Steelers really want to give Kenny Pickett (and Najee Harris to a lesser degree) a stalwart offensive lineman.
What, to you, is the funniest possible thing that could happen in the first round?
The funniest thing that can happen in the first round is tough, but the Colds hold a very, very high pick with an owner who just hired Jeff Saturday off TV to coach his team. The smoke around Levis suggests the Colts really want him, but Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker would be pretty funny here. He would be the oldest first-round quarterback since Brandon Weeden (!) and has a major adjustment as far as making the leap to an NFL scheme goes.
I’m not sure we’re going to get a Laremy Tunsil gas mask bong video that ends up affecting like five future drafts, but a big reach by the most cracked out owner in the NFL would make everyone laugh.
Who’s a player that will go outside the first round that people are sleeping on?
A player outside the first round that I would stand on the table for? That’s a bit difficult because there aren’t many first-round grades this year, so the evaluations are going to be a bit fluid, but Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence is someone I would sprint to draft if he’s there in round two. Big, nasty, physical motherfucker that only lives to move 320-pound defensive tackles from point A to point B. I really think he’s going to start for a decade.
Also, I gotta give some love to my back-to-back (soon to be back-to-back-to-back) national champion Georgia Bulldogs. Safety Chris Smith, edge rusher Robert Beal, and offensive lineman Warren McClendon are some of my favorite sleepers in the draft. You can’t go wrong drafting a Dawg.
Cool factoid to pass off as your own
The fastest man in the draft won’t go in the first round, and he might not go in the second round either. DJ Turner II, a cornerback out of Michigan, ran a 4.26 forty at the combine. That’s faster than the time Tyreek Hill put up at his 2016 pro day and only decimal points behind the 4.24 that legendary speedster Chris Johnson ran during his pre-draft workout.
Turner is perceived as a second or third rounder, with a lot of the big draft sites projecting him in the 50-60 range. As the old adage goes, you can’t teach speed, but the knock on Turner is that someone will have to teach him to cover a little bit better if he wants to make it in the league.
Free hot take
Paris Johnson Jr. is going to be a star. There’s going to be a handful of offensive linemen taken at the top, and it’s certainly possible that Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski or Tennessee's Darnell Wright go before Johnson. But watching tape of Johnson, who spent last season as Ohio State’s left tackle, is like watching a wild moose go on a rampage.
Johnson also has experience at guard, so teams with their tackle situation figured out can stash him there if need be. He played at a true NFL talent factory as well; a Buckeye has been taken in the top 15 every single year since 2016.
